Bitcoin bull case ETF adoption, shifting flows, and macro trends

Bitcoin has been at the center of the stage since the time the US SEC approved ETF applications. In all honesty, BTC never really left the limelight. If anything, the approval has helped it gain more attention worldwide. Crypto enthusiasts are optimistic that the token will rise in the coming days despite being aware of bearish arguments. Bullish sentiments are based on factors like macroeconomic conditions, comparison to gold, and ETF inflow.

ETF Inflow and GBTC Outflow

GBTC has been pinned as a major reason why BTC is rallying at a lower value. The selling pressure pointed out that this was a time to leave the market or start accumulating the token before it marks an uptick. Many did the latter, but some surrendered to the negative flow.

Now, the new US ETF inflow is at 170,628 BTC, while the GBTC outflow is at 132,136 BTC. Selling pressure is dropping, and net flows are only poised to climb the ladder. The current margin represents 3.29% of the BTC supply at the moment.

Bitcoin vs. Gold

Drawing a comparison with gold is only natural, considering Bitcoin has been termed a store of value and a better alternative to the dominant commodity. Bitcoin ETF flows since the first 14 days of trading are at $1.7 billion; this is ahead of gold by $0.4 billion, for it stands at $1.3 billion in terms of ETF flows.

Analysts believe that there is a shift in investment interest from gold to bitcoin, with the new ETF being better. It is not necessarily linked to the value of Bitcoin, but holders are optimistic that the value will rise to ATH by the end of this year.

The Bitcoin price projection estimates that the token may hit the milestone of $100k by the end of 2025, that is, next year. For reference, BTC is trading at $42,988.38, with a jump of 1.65% in the last 24 hours.

Macroeconomic Trends

Macroeconomic trends cover elements like the Fed’s announcement to cut rates, China printing more money, the chances of Hong Kong approving the Spot Bitcoin ETF, and resolving the banking crisis in the USA. No matter what element one picks, all of them point out that liquidity inflow will rise to support the adoption of risky assets.

The Federal Reserve Bank may announce its decision to cut rates, leading to a bull run for Bitcoin. There is no timeline for this, but many speculate it could be as early as the second quarter. Chain-printing money signals that liquidity inflows could be on the move.

Hong Kong approving ETF applications will fuel the rise, and the US joining Chain in money printing will strengthen it. A case for the US is made on the grounds that the country wants to avoid the next banking crisis after SVB.

In the last three years, there has been a generally negative correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY. However, there have been occasions when crypto-specific factors have eclipsed dollar trends. Bitcoin plummeted in late 2022 as FTX collapsed, discouraging investors from cheering the U.S. currency decline. 

Counter arguments

Data and the macro outlook support a bull run for Bitcoin. But if history has taught crypto enthusiasts anything, it is that volatility is a cruel factor and it can affect prices at any moment. Also, most of the bullish speculations are based on the principle that things will work out for the best of Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, institutional adoption and economic conditions are favorable for BTC.

Conclusion

Bearish concerns are natural since they would either be bullish or bearish, with people believing in both at some point. The current low in the market is credited to the selling pressure that has started diminishing. Next could be a rise in the crypto market, especially for BTC.